All of it occurred so quick.

Karsten Borner was planted on the halfdeck of his sailboat within the slanting rain. A grizzled mariner who had survived many storms, he was anchored in the identical cove as Mr. Lynch’s yacht, on the similar time, because the squall blew in in the course of the early hours of Aug. 19.

Fortunately, he was already awake. Because the wind picked up, he and his crew scurried round closing hatches, clearing the decks and firing up the engines to maintain his boat regular.

He couldn’t see a lot, however in flashes of lightning, he saved catching glimpses of Mr. Lynch’s lengthy, modern sloop bobbing behind him. It was only some hundred toes away and its super-tall aluminum mast — one of many tallest ever made — was lit up with vivid white lights, swaying within the wind.

Then he overlooked it. The rain fell like gravel, drawing a curtain round his boat. When he regarded up once more, he was shocked. The Bayesian was disappearing, at a really odd angle, into the ocean.

Within the weeks since, Mr. Borner, who has sailed for greater than half a century, nonetheless can’t imagine the yacht sank in entrance of him. There weren’t any huge waves that night time, he mentioned. Each boats had been near shore. His personal sailboat — a transformed tugboat in-built East Germany 66 years in the past — weathered the identical squall simply nice. And that different craft was a superyacht of the superrich, gleaming blue, 184 toes lengthy and drawing stares wherever it went.

“It’s a thriller,” Mr. Borner mentioned.

The seven victims of the Bayesian sinking, clockwise from prime left: Hannah Lynch, Mike Lynch, Judy Bloomer, Jonathan Bloomer, Christopher Morvillo, Neda Nassiri and Recaldo Thomas.

by way of Agence France-Presse — Getty Pictures; by way of Reuters; Patrick McMullan, by way of Getty Pictures

That thriller has rippled across the globe as a number of investigations into the tragedy unfold. It has vexed maritime consultants and compounded the grief of household and associates of the seven individuals who perished, together with Mr. Lynch and his teenage daughter, Hannah, whose our bodies had been discovered trapped beneath deck.

The investigations activate three central questions: Why did the Bayesian, which now lies 160 toes on the backside of the Mediterranean, sink so quick? Did the yacht have any design flaws? Did the captain or crew make any deadly errors?

The Bayesian was a one-of-a-kind sailboat, constructed by Perini Navi, a well-known Italian yacht maker. The corporate says the group of 10 superyachts that the Bayesian belonged to was “probably the most profitable collection of enormous crusing yachts ever conceived.”

However the Bayesian was totally different. Its unique purchaser — a Dutch businessman, not the Lynches — insisted on a single, hanging mast that may be taller than simply about some other mast on the planet, based on the Italian yacht maker and three folks with detailed data of how this boat was constructed.

That call resulted in main engineering penalties that in the end left the boat considerably extra weak than many comparable superyachts, The Occasions investigation has discovered.

— Greater than a dozen naval architects, engineers and different consultants consulted by The Occasions discovered obtrusive weaknesses within the Bayesian’s design that they mentioned might have contributed to the catastrophe.

— Fundamental design selections, like the 2 tall doorways on the aspect of the deck, elevated the Bayesian’s possibilities of taking over harmful quantities of water if excessive winds pushed the boat over towards its aspect, a number of naval architects mentioned.

— Witness and survivor accounts revealed how this lethal sequence unfolded in actual time: The yacht fell fully on its aspect and sank inside minutes.

Sources: Perini Navi (technical drawing of the yacht) and New York Occasions reporting.

Seemingly small particulars on any boat — like how shut air vents are to the waterline, or the place a ship’s ballast is positioned within the hull — won’t sound decisive on their very own. However when taken collectively, consultants mentioned, they seem to have compromised this vessel.

Such built-in vulnerabilities might not have been solely chargeable for the yacht’s sinking, after all. The storm’s surprising ferocity positively performed an element within the calamitous stew of occasions. Italian investigators are additionally wanting arduous on the actions of the Bayesian’s captain and crew.

Giovanni Costantino, the chief govt of the Italian Sea Group, the corporate that owns Perini Navi, mentioned that when operated correctly, the Bayesian was “unsinkable.” He maintains that the yacht was fastidiously engineered to outlive unhealthy storms, and he has put the blame for the tragedy squarely on the crew, accusing them of creating a series of deadly errors.

“I do know, all of the crew is aware of, that they didn’t do what they need to have carried out,” he mentioned. (Crew members haven’t revealed a lot, saying they’re below a “gag order.”)

Mr. Costantino mentioned the design was not at fault and that the towering mast, which stood 237 toes tall, had not created “any type of downside.”

“The ship was an unsinkable ship,” he mentioned. “I say it, I repeat it.”

The world of superyachts is extremely opaque, the unique realm of among the richest folks on the planet, and precisely how these multimillion greenback boats are designed, permitted and owned stay carefully guarded secrets and techniques.

Ensuring a superyacht is match for the seas is a job left to a community of personal firms and public businesses, and the Bayesian’s design was permitted by the American Bureau of Transport and the British Maritime and Coastguard Company.

All the eye this tragedy has obtained might lead to a more in-depth have a look at yachting rules. A number of naval engineers in several international locations who’ve gained entry to the Bayesian’s paperwork say that as yachts have turn out to be extra elaborate and topic to homeowners’ whims, others could also be in peril as properly.

The Bayesian’s technical paperwork present simply how weak it was. Even with out main errors by the crew, the ship might have sunk in a storm that different boats survived, engineers say.

“We are able to have a look at it in hindsight and say they had been within the mistaken place on the mistaken time. No, that’s not true,” mentioned Tad Roberts, a Canadian naval architect who has practically 40 years of expertise designing boats, together with superyachts.

“This boat had particular shortcomings that type of uniquely made it weak to what occurred.”

The Victory Voyages

A cruise on the Bayesian was a voyage into luxurious. The times had been usually heat, sunny and calm, and completed off with plates of contemporary langoustine and opulent chocolate. Hours would go lounging on solar chairs, swimming within the sea or perhaps taking out a kayak whereas the Bayesian crew, in branded polo shirts, watched vigilantly from the deck.

“It felt like a phenomenal lodge that was floating on water,” remembers Abbie VanSickle, a New York Occasions reporter who was invited aboard in July as a result of her husband, Jonathan Baum, was a part of Mr. Lynch’s authorized protection workforce.

Mr. Lynch had been acquitted in June in a prison case during which he was accused of fraudulently inflating the worth of his software program firm when he offered it to Hewlett-Packard for $11 billion. He might have been despatched to jail for years. To have fun his win — and his freedom — he requested associates and attorneys to cruise the Mediterranean with him.

Mr. Lynch appeared proud that his boat had one of many world’s tallest masts — somewhat booklet in her cabin even mentioned as a lot, Ms. VanSickle remembered. Each time they chugged right into a harbor, she mentioned, “folks would take pictures of it consistently as a result of it was so crazy-looking compared to different boats.”

More often than not, although, the Bayesian operated like a motorboat, powered by two monumental diesel engines. Throughout her five-day voyage, Ms. VanSickle mentioned they sailed solely as soon as, for just some hours. However after they did, the boat moved by means of the water so easily, she mentioned, it felt like they had been “gliding.”

A promotional picture from Perini Navi of the Bayesian, which Mr. Lynch named after an 18th-century principle on chance.

EPA, by way of Shutterstock

Just a few weeks after Ms. VanSickle received off and returned to her life as a reporter in Washington, Mr. Lynch welcomed aboard his subsequent batch of company. This was the second celebratory voyage, starting in mid-August, and Mr. Lynch had deliberate to get again to London, the place he lived, round Aug. 20.

Among the many 12 passengers had been Mr. Lynch; his spouse, Angela Bacares; their 18-year-old daughter, Hannah, who was quickly off to Oxford; one in every of his lead attorneys, Chris Morvillo, and his spouse, Neda Nassiri, who designed handcrafted jewellery; Jonathan Bloomer, a global banker and trusted adviser, and his spouse, Judy, a psychotherapist celebrated for her charity work.

Mr. Lynch additionally invited some youthful colleagues, together with a pair who introduced a child on board. The crew was led by James Cutfield, an skilled New Zealand sailor, backed up by a primary mate, a ship engineer, a number of deckhands and hostesses, totaling 10 in all.

Mr. Lynch was on the rebound, fired up about the potential for beginning a nonprofit to assist exonerate folks wrongly accused of crimes, mentioned Sir David Davis, a buddy and distinguished conservative British politician.

Mr. Lynch despatched Sir David a textual content message providing the selection of lunch or dinner in London on Aug. 22, when he was again.

An Unanticipated Storm

The Mediterranean Sea was flat on Aug. 18. However unhealthy climate was shifting south, from Naples towards Sicily. The Italian Air Drive’s Meteomar forecast warned of scattered thunderstorms, gusts of wind and a tough sea. A number of yacht captains mentioned the climate warning was removed from particular or extraordinary.

Mr. Borner, the captain who for many years has been working cruises and diving excursions on his previous sailboat, the Sir Robert Baden Powell, was ending up his personal journey, selecting his approach west alongside the Sicilian coast.

The wind was blowing from the northwest and Mr. Borner figured that the curvature of Sicily’s rugged shoreline at Porticello, a small fishing village constructed round a cove, would shelter him. He arrived within the cove that afternoon, went ashore together with his company and grabbed some pizza.

“It was a pleasant night,” he remembered.

Whereas they had been on the town, the Bayesian chugged into the identical cove. It dropped anchor at 9:35 p.m., a few third of a mile from land. As Mr. Borner went to sleep round 11, the night time was clear. The lights of the Bayesian’s mast glowed behind him.

Lights illuminating the mast of the Bayseian on Aug. 18.

Baia Santa Nicolicchia/Fabio La Bianca, by way of Reuters

At midnight on Aug. 19, the Italian Coast Guard put out a warning for a northwesterly Gale Drive 8, a severe storm during which winds might attain 46 miles per hour. However the gale was predicted to hit tons of of miles from Sicily.

Round 3 a.m., Mr. Borner woke as much as assist a few of his passengers catch an early flight from Palermo, Sicily’s largest metropolis. However because the winds picked up quickly, whipping the cove right into a frothy chop, he scratched his plan to go ashore.

He and his crew shut the portholes and skylights and began the engine, to maintain the bow pointed into the wind and stop the boat from being hit on its aspect.

On the Bayesian, a younger deckhand, Matthew Griffiths, later advised the authorities that when the wind hit 20 knots, he wakened the captain, based on an individual near the crew (who mentioned that neither of them was allowed to talk publicly). The captain then gave the order to get up others, the individual mentioned.

At 3:51 a.m., the Bayesian began to float — first 80 meters a technique, then 80 meters one other, its information transmitter reveals. Maritime consultants mentioned this meant it was being blown round and doubtless dragging its anchor. It’s unclear whether or not the engines had been began.

At 4:02 a.m., a digicam mounted on a ship in Porticello’s cove reveals vivid blue flashes of lightning. Three minutes later, one other at a Porticello cafe captures the wind tearing down deck umbrellas. A lot rain hits one of many cameras, it seems to be as if it’s being blasted with a hose.

Mr. Borner estimated that the wind gusts reached 60 knots, or practically 70 miles an hour — just under hurricane power — and mentioned that they had pushed his boat onto its aspect about 15 levels, a severe lean however nothing near capsizing.

Studies instantly after the catastrophe raised the likelihood that the Bayesian had been hit by a tornado-like disturbance referred to as a waterspout, however the authorities don’t assume that occurred. Nonetheless, the wind was doing one thing harmful: It was altering course.

In response to a close-by climate station, it was blowing west-southwest then southwest, then north-northwest. This elevated the possibilities of getting ambushed by a random gust that might slam into the aspect of a ship, which may tilt even a giant vessel.

A 3rd video reveals the Bayesian rocking backwards and forwards and starting to lean. Then the lights on its big mast blink out — all however the prime one, which was powered by a battery.

By 4:06 a.m., the rain has became a blinding cascade. That very same minute, the Bayesian’s location sign cuts out. Mr. Borner’s crew squinted by means of the practically impenetrable haze of sea spray and rain and noticed a big object within the water. They first thought it was a reef.

“However I knew there was no reef,” Mr. Borner mentioned.

It was the Bayesian, they now imagine, knocked onto its aspect.

“Two Minutes” to Tragedy

At 4:34 a.m., a pink emergency flare, vivid as a meteor, shot into the sky. The storm had handed, and Mr. Borner and his first mate jumped right into a small boat, zooming throughout the black water.

First they noticed cushions floating. Then a flashing mild. Then a life raft constructed for 12 filled with 15 folks, bloodied and soaked to the pores and skin, together with a child.

One individual had a lower on the top, one other on his chest. Some had already been bandaged. They had been chilly, moist and dazed. They had been too shocked, Mr. Borner mentioned, to say what occurred.

As he loaded the survivors into his boat and started to go again to the Sir Robert, one girl pleaded with him to not go away.

“Please,” she advised him. “Proceed looking out.”

Some folks had been nonetheless lacking.

Mr. Borner determined to unload the survivors onto the Sir Robert, then ship his small boat again. His crew gave them blankets and dry garments. Some survivors had been so shaken they wanted to be led beneath deck by hand.

No person mentioned a lot, Mr. Borner remembered.

One man advised him: “I used to be the captain of this.”

One other mentioned the boat had “sunk in two minutes.”

The girl who had begged him to maintain looking out sat huddled on the deck.

“Are you OK?” Mr. Borner requested her.

“No,” she replied. “I’m not OK in any respect.’’

Capt. Karsten Borner, who rescued the survivors of the Bayesian.

Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters

Mr. Borner mentioned he later realized it was Angela Bacares, spouse of Mr. Lynch and mom of Hannah Lynch. Neither had made it onto the life raft. (Salamander Davoudi, a spokeswoman for Lynch household, advised The Occasions that Ms. Bacares was not chatting with the media as a result of she was grieving and wished privateness.)

Just a few hours after, a string of ambulances arrived at Palermo’s most important hospital. Dr. Domenico Cipolla, the top of pediatric emergency, evaluated the youngest survivor, a 1-year-old woman.

The newborn was OK, Dr. Cipolla mentioned, however she had skilled fairly an ordeal. She and her mom had been sleeping on a settee on deck due to the tough sea, Dr. Cipolla mentioned, when the boat all of a sudden lurched and threw them to the deck.

A second later the boat turned fully on its aspect, the newborn’s father advised the physician, flipping his hand as he described it. The physician mentioned the mom advised him that she and her child had been hurled into the water and that her child practically slipped away. However then she grabbed her and swam to a close-by life raft, which was designed to deploy routinely.

The mother and father had been later recognized as Charlotte Golunski, a colleague of Mr. Lynch, and James Emslie. Ms. Golunski didn’t reply to a number of messages left for her, and efforts to achieve Mr. Emslie had been unsuccessful.

Sources: Perini Navi (technical drawing of the yacht) and New York Occasions reporting.

Errors by the Crew?

The most important query that investigators are centered on is how the Bayesian stuffed with water so quick. To many within the yachting world, it doesn’t make sense.

The boat had been constructed with a number of watertight compartments below the deck, to forestall water from spreading from one space to others. And it had been permitted as secure by the Maritime and Coastguard Company, a part of Britain’s Division for Transport, and by the American Bureau of Transport, a personal firm that opinions boat designs.

On prime of that, one Italian official and underwater video footage broadcast on Italian tv indicated that there have been no holes or different structural injury seen within the hull.

Even so, the Bayesian, like many superyachts, had all types of openings during which water might theoretically get in: huge air vents for the engines; smaller ones for the kitchen, crew quarters and visitor cabins; giant glass doorways on the again and the perimeters so that individuals might stroll onto the deck; and varied hatches for crew and passenger entry.

In interviews with Mr. Costantino, the chief govt of the Italian Sea Group, and his spokeswoman, the corporate accused the crew of leaving hatches open in the course of the storm, together with a doorway-size opening on the left rear of the hull, near the water line. The spokeswoman claimed that hatch was the one place the place a lot water might have come gushing in.

The corporate speculated that the crew didn’t shut a watertight door between this hatch and the engine room. A flooded engine room may clarify the sudden blackout that killed the mast lights after which, a couple of minutes later, the situation transmitter.

However witnesses, an Italian official conversant in the investigation and the underwater video challenged the corporate’s variations of occasions. The footage appeared to point out the watertight door to the engine room closed, and the Italian official mentioned the divers had not seen any open hatches on the hull.

Mr. Borner additionally mentioned that after rescuing the captain, he requested him if he had shut the hatches. The captain mentioned he had. Mr. Borner shared photos taken by his company a couple of moments earlier than the Bayesian sank that seem to point out that hull hatches had been closed.

A Compromised Design?

The Bayesian’s origins return to 2000. That yr, Perini employed Ron Holland Design, a premier naval architectural agency, to design a collection of 56-meter sailboats, mentioned an individual with data of the timeline. Because the superrich have turn out to be even richer, yachts have grown steadily larger, and Perini was rising as one of many world’s best-known builders of superyachts, usually outlined as motor yachts or sailboats longer than 24 meters, or 79 toes.

The Ron Holland agency, based mostly in Eire on the time, drew up plans for the hull, keel, rudder and, crucially, the position of the masts — two masts. All different options, just like the cabins, decks and vent system, had been designed by Perini, based on the individual, who didn’t need to be recognized due to the potential for authorized motion linked to the sinking.

In 2003, the primary yacht within the collection hit the water, the Burrasca (which implies storm in Italian). Over the subsequent 4 years, Perini constructed three extra 56-meter superyachts from these blueprints, all with two masts. On Perini’s web site, they appear practically similar.

Then got here the Bayesian.

Development on its hull started in 2005 at a shipyard in Tuzla, Turkey, based on the boat’s paperwork. However the unique purchaser for this yacht didn’t need the usual two-mast design. As a substitute, the Italian Sea Group mentioned, he wished the boat to be constructed with one giant mast for higher crusing efficiency.

That led to a radically totally different design, mentioned three folks with data of what adopted, and a cascade of modifications — some to accommodate the large mast, and a few apparently for stylistic or different causes.

A promotional picture from Perini Navi exhibiting the Bayesian’s mast and sails.

EPA, by way of Shutterstock

The obvious departure from the earlier Perini ships was the mast itself. Past being exceptionally tall — greater than 40 toes increased than the unique foremast — it was additionally very heavy, a minimum of 24 tons of aluminum, probably extra. This alone would have challenged the boat’s stability, as a result of a lot weight was excessive above deck.

Since then, many yacht makers have switched to lighter, carbon-fiber masts.

“Expertise moved on,” Mr. Costantino mentioned.

Naval engineers identified that the heavier a yacht is up excessive, the extra ballast it usually wants down low — weight on the backside of the boat to decrease its middle of gravity and resist its tendency to lean over.

Small notes on hull diagrams within the Bayesian’s paperwork present that the Turkish shipyard revised the ballast in July 2006, practically 10 months after the keel was laid, which is likely one of the first steps of manufacturing.

“Values up to date as from data by Yildiz,” the notes say in all caps, naming the shipyard.

However the place this ballast was positioned was curious, maritime consultants mentioned. Fairly than spreading the ballast evenly throughout the underside of the boat — which might have assured the most effective stability — the builders stacked it towards the rear of the ship’s hull.

“Once I first noticed this, I couldn’t imagine it,” mentioned Mr. Roberts, the naval architect. “It made no sense to me.”

The ballast appears to have been pushed towards the rear of the boat to offset the only, heavy mast nearer towards the entrance, Mr. Roberts concluded. He mentioned he had by no means seen the primary ballast utilized in such a design tactic earlier than.

That was not the one change, consultants mentioned. A single mast would have plunged virtually immediately by means of the wheelhouse, an inside station the place the ship might be managed, in order that was moved, too. A deck lounge was added, together with two tall doorways on the perimeters. Not one of the different Perini yachts within the 56-meter collection have these design components.

Sources: Perini Navi (technical drawing of the yacht) and New York Occasions reporting.

The Bayesian sat decrease within the water than different yachts in the identical Perini collection, mentioned Stephen Edwards, the Bayesian’s captain from 2015 to 2020. Naval architects mentioned this by itself would make it simpler for water to pour by means of vents and different openings when the boat leans on its aspect.

Each time a ship leans too far and water begins gushing in by means of open doorways or vents, it may well set off a harmful downward spiral that’s arduous to cease and that may sink a ship in minutes.

Such dangers are calculated and specified by a prolonged, proprietary doc — type of a security bible — for a lot of vessels licensed to ply the seas.

The Occasions has obtained that security bible, referred to as a stability e-book, for the Bayesian. Copies of the 88-page e-book are additionally sweeping by means of a worldwide neighborhood of consultants who’re obsessively making an attempt to resolve the puzzle of how and why the boat sank. Greater than a dozen of these consultants, together with naval architects and engineers, discovered weaknesses within the Bayesian’s design that they mentioned might have contributed to the catastrophe.

The steadiness e-book obtained by The Occasions was written earlier than the Lynches purchased the boat in 2014, when the yacht was referred to as the Salute and owned by John Groenewoud, a Dutch businessman. In an e-mail, he confirmed signing a contract for “the boat with 1 mast” in 2005, however declined to debate any security implications which will have had.

The Occasions obtained the steadiness e-book for one more 56-meter Perini yacht, with two masts as a substitute of 1. A comparability of the boats confirmed that the Bayesian was considerably much less steady.

Particularly, the information reveals that the two-masted ship might lean a minimum of 10 levels farther onto its aspect earlier than taking over harmful quantities of water.

The paperwork additionally present that the Bayesian might start taking over some water at angles that appeared to violate the protection threshold set by the British Maritime and Coastguard Company.

The Italian Sea Group responded that the boat was in step with rules and had been permitted. When requested how that occurred, an company spokesman refused to make clear, citing the persevering with investigations.

The opposite boat’s paperwork additionally confirmed that the sister yacht sat somewhat increased within the water than the Bayesian did, as Mr. Edwards emphasised. And below many circumstances, consultants mentioned, the sister ship had a greater middle of gravity and was extra proof against capsizing, two extra components that may have made it safer.

“The opposite boat is, a minimum of on paper, a greater boat,” Mr. Roberts mentioned.

To make boats safer, naval architects mentioned they religiously ensured that vent openings are removed from the water line. When confirmed an image of a 56-meter Perini yacht that, just like the Bayesian, had vents constructed into the hull, Philipp Luke, a Dutch naval architect, began violently shaking his head.

“No, no, no,” he mentioned. “You don’t try this.”

In the long run, a number of naval architects mentioned, all these flaws might have come collectively on the worst time — in a sudden storm.

Two Spanish naval engineers, Guillermo Gefaell and Juan Manuel López, calculated that the sheer dimension of the Bayesian’s mast and rigging made the yacht a wind catcher, even with the sails down.

Writing for the Affiliation of Naval and Ocean Engineers of Spain, they used a pc mannequin to calculate what would have occurred to the Bayesian if a robust gust of roughly 54 knots, round 62 mph, hit its aspect. Beneath these circumstances, the Spanish engineers estimated, the Bayesian might lean dynamically and tackle practically a ton of water every second by means of an engine room vent.

In an interview, Mr. Gefaell famous that he, like virtually everybody else, didn’t know every part that occurred that night time. But when the gusts had been as robust as Mr. Borner estimated — 60 knots — the punch would have pushed the boat to an much more extreme angle, his calculations confirmed, in a short time knocking the boat all the way in which over onto its aspect, because the witnesses recounted.

At that time, Mr. Gefaell mentioned, “the boat was actually misplaced.”

A Watery Maze

Inside hours of the sinking, emergency divers plunged in. Their mission: Discover survivors.

The Bayesian sat 160 toes beneath the floor, leaning on its proper aspect on the seabed. The once-gleaming cabins had been clogged with chairs, garments, curtains and the large variety of seat cushions that Ms. Bacares had introduced onboard to make the boat extra comfy. The search was made much more tough and harmful, divers mentioned, by the numerous mirrors put in beneath deck that now mirrored again their lights in a disorienting, watery maze.

On the primary day, divers discovered the physique of the yacht’s chef, Recaldo Thomas, floating close to the boat. Over the subsequent three days, they discovered the our bodies of Mr. Lynch and 4 different passengers in a small cabin close to the foot of a slender staircase main down from the deck to the passenger’s quarters. Lastly, divers found the physique of the final lacking individual, Hannah Lynch, trapped behind furnishings in a close-by cabin.

One Italian official mentioned the six passengers might need been making an attempt to climb the primary visitor staircase when a surge of water poured down the steps and knocked them again into the cabins. With the boat flipped on its aspect, water gushing in, and complete darkness, it could have been practically inconceivable for anybody beneath deck to flee, consultants mentioned.

The Italian authorities plan to lift the wreck to examine it extra carefully. That might take months. Within the meantime, a minimum of two main investigations are unfolding, one by Italian prosecutors and the opposite by the British Marine Accident Investigation Department.

Rescue employees bringing the physique of the ultimate Bayesian sufferer to shore, in Porticello, Italy, on Aug. 23.

Igor Petyx/EPA, by way of Shutterstock

From the primary weeks after the accident, Italian prosecutors mentioned that Mr. Cutfield, the captain, and two of his crew had been below investigation.

Mr. Cutfield hasn’t mentioned a phrase publicly and didn’t reply to messages asking for remark. A number of crew members, when approached at a lodge in Sicily in August, mentioned that they had all been put below a gag order. When requested who imposed it, they responded: “No remark.”

Within the yachting world, Mr. Cutfield has some strong references. Turgay Ciner, a Turkish industrial magnate and crusing fanatic, employed him to run his yacht for 12 years.

“He by no means made any errors,” Mr. Ciner mentioned.

Mr. Ciner, talking by cellphone from Istanbul, recounted a foul storm close to Capri about 10 years in the past that Mr. Cutfield dealt with. They had been crusing on one other 56-meter Perini yacht, the Melek, a two-masted boat in the identical collection because the Bayesian. He mentioned that Mr. Cutfield carried out very properly and was “one out of 100.”

Why Mr. Cutfield left in a lifeboat with the opposite survivors when a half dozen passengers had been nonetheless lacking is a matter Italian prosecutors are wanting into.

However a number of yacht captains have defended Mr. Cutfield, saying that no matter occurred that night time, it occurred in a short time.

When a ship sinks quick, mentioned Adam Hauck, an American yacht captain, there’s not a lot hope for anybody nonetheless onboard. The adage of the captain happening with the ship, he mentioned, is antiquated and unrealistic.

“It’s not like a Titanic film the place you’re going by means of the water and you’ll simply look within the rooms,” Mr. Hauck mentioned. “Sooner or later, you may’t return for folks.”